Top 1% Buys & Worst 1% to Avoid - Before Everyone Else
Analyzing 6.7 Million Data Points Seeking Outliers
A probability engine analyzing 5,000 stocks over 100 factors, telling you which stocks have the best and worst odds—every single week.
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Oddsmaker News
METHODOLOGY
How Does The Oddsmaker Work?
Our proprietary research suite strips away market noise and replaces it with mathematical conviction. By utilizing a sophisticated scoring engine that ranks equities on both a linear and non-linear basis, we pinpoint the highest-probability trades at the most optimal times.
5,000+
Stocks Ranked Weekly
100+
Factors Analyzed
6.7M
Data Points Per Week
TOOL #1
True Value of The Oddsmaker Score
The Oddsmaker Score is our flagship comprehensive ranking system—a high-precision filter for the investment universe. It programmatically screens stocks through seven core fundamental factors, utilizing a scoring range that rewards momentum and penalizes bloated valuations.
FINDING THE TOP 1% (LONGS)
The engine awards +25 pts for LTM revenue growth >25%, +35 pts when stock price is below 50% of sell-side target, and +25 pts for ROE >20%. An additional +15 pt Long Bonus triggers when ROE is high and EBITDA margin exceeds 35%.
FINDING THE WORST (SHORTS)
The engine docks -25 pts for negative revenue growth (declining -10% or worse), strips -35 pts for deeply negative EBITDA margins, and applies another -25 pts for ROE below -20%—instantly dragging names into the bottom tier.
The Odds Are Not Equal.
Most
Stocks create average returns
Top 1%
Creates extraordinary wealth
Bottom 1%
Destroys wealth systematically
We Try to Find the Best 1%.
While Avoiding the Worst 1%.
The Oddsmaker systematically ranks thousands of companies to identify both.
SCORE ARCHITECTURE
Some Elements to the Oddsmaker Model
COLUMN GROUP
WHAT IT MEASURES
Symbol / Company / Sector / Price
Identity + current market reference
Score / Percentiles
Final ranking and relative market position
OM Target / Price-to-Target
Price/value dislocation
Value / Growth / Quality / Moat / Balance Sheet / Timing
Letter-grade factor buckets
EV/Sales / EV/EBITDA / FCF/EV
Valuation and cash-flow yield
FCF Margin / EBITDA Margin / ROE / ROIC
Quality and profitability
Short Interest / Beta / 200D SMA
Technical and risk variables
Buybacks / Share Count Growth
Capital allocation and dilution
Flags
Most Expensive, Hidden Innovators, Junk Yard, Safety Net
TOOL #2
True Value of The Super Multiple Predictor
This tool identifies the "inflection point" where a company's valuation is likely to expand or contract. By layering non-linear technical risk multipliers over fundamental data, we predict how market multiples will shift in the near term.
HOW IT WORKS
It utilizes the Squeeze Watch and Short Bonus overlays to monitor 10-day price performance against high short interest. If a stock is in the bottom 3 deciles and sees price movement above 7% with short interest over 15%, a -2x multiplier is triggered.
THE VALUE
It spots explosive short-squeeze potential and momentum breakouts before they are fully priced in, ensuring you aren't the last one into a trade.
FINDING THE TOP 1% (LONGS)
Awards +20 pts when EV/Sales drops below 1x, and +25 pts when Forward EV/EBITDA is under 2x. This isolates companies with an asymmetric, un-shortable valuation floor.
FINDING THE WORST (SHORTS)
Applies exponential penalties—capping EV/Sales penalties at -100 pts if it exceeds 20x. Integrates a Short Bonus modifier stripping -4 pts for every 1% above the market average volume, predicting rapid fundamental collapse.
TOOL #3
True Value of The Trifecta Ratio
The Trifecta Ratio is a quality percentile ranking engine that measures a company across three core dimensions: FCF Margin, Revenue Growth, and ROIC. It identifies true "compounders" — businesses growing fast, generating cash, and reinvesting at high returns.
HOW IT WORKS
Every stock is ranked best to worst on a percentile basis across all three metrics simultaneously. The model then rewards companies in the top deciles and penalizes those in the bottom deciles — creating a single quality score that reflects true compounding potential.
THE VALUE
It isolates elite compounders — businesses growing 10–15%+ annually, generating strong free cash flow, and reinvesting at returns above 20% (ROIC/ROE). These are the stocks most likely to deliver outsized, multi-year gains.
FINDING THE TOP 1% (LONGS)
Awards +10 pts for elite FCF Margin percentile + high-double-digit Revenue Growth + ROIC/ROE above 20%. If LTM Share Buybacks confirm capital discipline, the full bonus is applied.
FINDING THE WORST (SHORTS)
Applies a -10 pts penalty for the lowest percentile scores across all three metrics — negative revenue growth, deeply negative ROIC, and no buybacks. Squeeze Watch activates a -2x multiplier if bottom 3 deciles with price surge >7% and short interest >15%.
Top 20 Most Unique Mathematical Elements
#
ELEMENT
WHY IT MATTERS
1
Final Oddsmaker Score vs. Score Without Bonus
Separates pure fundamentals from overlays
2
Oddsmaker Score Without Short Scale
Shows score before technical/squeeze adjustment
3
Percentile Ranking
Converts raw scores into relative market position
4
OM Target
Converts model output into implied price/value
COMMON QUESTIONS
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about The Oddsmaker and how it can improve your investment decisions.
What exactly is The Oddsmaker?
The Oddsmaker is a free weekly newsletter that ranks all 5,000+ US-listed stocks using a 100-factor scoring model built on institutional hedge fund methodology. Every Monday you receive the Best 1% (top 50 undervalued stocks) and Worst 1% (bottom 50 overvalued stocks), plus hedge fund analysis and market intelligence.
How does the 100-factor scoring model work?
The model analyzes every US-listed stock across 100 quantitative factors spanning valuation (P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA), momentum, earnings quality, balance sheet strength, cash flow, analyst revisions, and more. Each stock receives a composite score from 0-100. The top 1% are ranked as Best and the bottom 1% as Worst. The methodology is inspired by the factor-based models used at institutional hedge funds.
Is The Oddsmaker really free?
Yes, completely free. No credit card required. You simply enter your email and receive the full rankings report every Monday morning. There are no hidden upsells to access the core weekly rankings. Unsubscribe at any time with one click.
How is this different from stock screeners or other newsletters?
Most stock screeners require hours of manual setup, use only 5-10 factors, and still leave interpretation to you. Most newsletters are opinion-based and rely on a single analyst gut. The Oddsmaker automates 100 quantitative factors across the entire market every week and delivers a clear ranked output - no opinion, no bias, just data.
Who is The Oddsmaker built for?
The Oddsmaker is built for serious retail investors, self-directed traders, financial advisors, and anyone who wants data-driven stock research without paying for expensive institutional tools. Whether you are a beginner looking for a systematic framework or a professional who wants a second opinion on rankings, The Oddsmaker delivers institutional-grade analysis for free.
Free to Follow. Built to Win.
Stop Guessing.
Start Winning.
Join thousands of serious investors who use The Oddsmaker every week to identify the best 1% of stocks to buy and the worst 1% to avoid — powered by a real hedge fund scoring model.
Built by a hedge fund manager · 5,000+ stocks scored weekly · 100 institutional-grade factors